The Fallacy of Quantifying Risk

Abstract

Nearly every article you see in industry and within the DoD literature on the topic of "risk management" demonstrates, advocates, or aggrandizes the attempt to quantify risk. One might think that if risk management was truly a science and uncertainty could be systematically quantified in some manner, then the maturity of the profession of project or program management, as measured by the number of projects or programs that meet cost, schedule, and performance goals, would increase over time. Alas, the profession is not able to make this claim.

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Document Details

Document Type
Technical Report
Publication Date
Sep 01, 2012
Accession Number
AD1015988

Entities

People

  • David E. Frick

Organizations

  • Defense Acquisition University

Tags

Communities of Interest

  • Biomedical

DTIC Thesaurus Topics

  • Acquisition
  • Business Administration
  • Cost Benefit Analysis
  • Costs
  • Department Of Defense
  • Electronic Mail
  • Insurance
  • Probability
  • Program Management
  • Project Management
  • Risk
  • Risk Analysis
  • Risk Management
  • Solar Flares
  • Test And Evaluation
  • Uncertainty

Readers

  • Computational Modeling and Simulation
  • Military History of the United States in the 20th Century.
  • Systems Analysis and Design