Predicting Program Success Not Childs Play
Abstract
Whenever I deal with stakeholders, I am reminded of the game Rock, Paper, Scissors that I played as a child. If youre not familiar with the game, two players, on the count of three, put forth a hand in a symbol representing a rock, paper or scissors. The winner of the round is determined by the relationship between the two factors: Paper covers rock, so paper wins; rock breaks scissors, so rock wins; or scissors cut paper, so scissors win. When I was young, the winner got to punch the loser in the arm or give a two-finger wet slap. Both consequences were harmless but somewhat painful.One could argue that there is a forecasting aspect of the game based on the players last three to five throwsi.e., past performance. To win continuously, a player has to guess what symbol the other player will throw and then throw the appropriate winning symbol. It is difficult to predict because every throw has a winner or loser based solely on the situation at the time, and the situation is dynamic.
Document Details
- Document Type
- Technical Report
- Publication Date
- Feb 01, 2014
- Accession Number
- AD1016023
Entities
People
- Debra E. Hahn
Organizations
- Defense Acquisition University