There Are No Facts About the Future: Musings On Requirement Stability, Cost Estimates, and Weather Forecasts

Abstract

Suppose two meteorologists make predictions about the weather for a particular Saturday. Mr. Gray says there is a 50 percent chance of rain, and Mr. Blue says there is a 25 percent chance of rain. On the Saturday in question, it does indeed rain. Which one was right: the one who predicted a 50 percent chance of rain or the one who predicted half that percentage? Were they both right? Was Gray twice as right as Blue? Can we say that one prediction was more reliable, more useful, or more accurate than the other? I dont think we can.

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Document Details

Document Type
Technical Report
Publication Date
Dec 01, 2009
Accession Number
AD1016362

Entities

People

  • Daniel R. Ward

Tags

Communities of Interest

  • Human Systems
  • Materials and Manufacturing Processes

DTIC Thesaurus Topics

  • Accountability
  • Acquisition
  • Air Force
  • Cost Estimates
  • Costs
  • Electrical Engineering
  • Electronic Equipment
  • Electronic Mail
  • Engineering
  • Equations
  • Military Acquisition
  • Shelf Life
  • Systems Engineering
  • Systems Management
  • Weapon Systems

Readers

  • Educational Psychology
  • Mathematics or Statistics
  • Ocean-Atmosphere Mesoscale Modeling, Data Assimilation, and Flux Boundary Layers