Visual Representation of Rational Belief Revision: Another Look at the Sleeping Beauty Problem
Abstract
The coherence of probability judgments is influenced in predictable ways by people's internal representations of problems, which may be altered by the manner in which propositions are stated or framed (Mandel, 2008). Likewise, several studies find that probabilistic reasoning and judgment can be improved by externally representing statistical information visually (for a review, see Garcia-Retamero and Cokely, 2013). Visual representation is thought to facilitate performance by externalizing the set-subset relations among observational data. Although some studies have examined whether visual representations can improve Bayesian reasoning, they have tended to focus on the use of natural sampling trees (Sedlmeier and Gigerenzer, 2001), Euler circles (Sloman et al., 2003), or other means of representing set-subset relations.
Document Details
- Document Type
- Technical Report
- Publication Date
- Oct 29, 2014
- Accession Number
- AD1018048
Entities
People
- David R Mandel
Organizations
- York University