Moldova versus Russian Hybrid Threat: A Question of National Will

Abstract

The Republic of Moldova may face a situation similar to the one Ukraine is facinga Russian hybrid threat. Elements of such a threat are already present in Moldova. This study argues that the Republic of Moldova can and must prepare to successfully oppose a Russia supported hybrid threat. The paper first describes the threat. It then analyzes the current situation in the Republic of Moldova using a PMESII framework in order to identify if current conditions favor a successful opposition of a potential Russia supported hybrid threat. The paper also examines, using counterinsurgency theories, if there are conditions in Moldova that could favor development of an insurgency as part of the overall hybrid threat. As the research identifies, there are both advantages and disadvantages for the Republic of Moldova in regards to preventing or addressing a potential Russia supported hybrid threat. The disadvantages are numerous and they are significant. The greatest disadvantage is the political and societal polarization of the population. This then drives lack of national consensus, corruption, indecisiveness, extensive reliance on partners and international community, political focus on winning popularity, and ultimately affect the national security. However, as the paper ascertains, Russia's lack of direct access to Moldova is a great advantage and increases Moldova's probability for success. The research identifies that the current situation is complicated, dangerous, and requires an immediate whole-of-government approach. The conclusion is that the Republic of Moldova can successfully oppose a Russia supported hybrid threat only if it improves its current situation. By fixing the current situation, Moldova will obtain the national will to oppose a potential Russia supported hybrid threat.

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Document Details

Document Type
Technical Report
Publication Date
Jun 10, 2016
Accession Number
AD1019918

Entities

People

  • Sergiu Cirimpei

Organizations

  • United States Army Command and General Staff College

Tags

Communities of Interest

  • Biomedical
  • Energy and Power Technologies
  • Human Systems
  • Weapons Technologies

DTIC Thesaurus Topics

  • Cis
  • Counterinsurgency
  • Ethnic Groups
  • European Union
  • Geography
  • Governments
  • Hybrid Threats
  • Hybrid Warfare
  • Insurgency
  • International Organizations
  • Military Science
  • Minority Groups
  • National Security
  • Security
  • Social Media
  • Ussr
  • Warfare

Readers

  • East Asian Political and Security Studies within the Soviet Union
  • Irregular Warfare and Special Operations Cyberspace Operations against Adversarial Threats.
  • Systems Analysis and Design