Game Theory, Predictive Analysis, And Iran

Abstract

Traditional analysis and prediction of political policy relies principally on expert judgment. Augmenting expert judgment with analytical models, based upon Game Theory, purportedly enhances the accuracy of predictions. The specific claims and methodology of Dr. Bruce Bueno de Mesquita offer an example of such analysis for review and evaluation. This review explains his methodology, investigates his claims of prediction accuracy, evaluates his ability to mitigate analytical biases, and assesses two of his 2009 predictions for the Islamic Republic of Iran. Overall, the approach does not reduce the amount of synthesis or judgment required from the analyst.

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Document Details

Document Type
Technical Report
Publication Date
Dec 01, 2013
Accession Number
AD1023231

Entities

People

  • Johnathan S Seal

Organizations

  • Air Command and Staff College

Tags

Communities of Interest

  • Energy and Power Technologies
  • Materials and Manufacturing Processes
  • Weapons Technologies

DTIC Thesaurus Topics

  • Business Administration
  • Delphi Method
  • Economic Forecasting
  • Game Theory
  • Governments
  • Greenhouse Effect
  • Greenhouse Gases
  • Money
  • National Governments
  • National Politics
  • Negotiations
  • New York
  • Political Science
  • Psychology
  • United States
  • United States Government
  • Universities

Readers

  • Computational Modeling and Simulation
  • Nuclear Non-Proliferation and International Security
  • Team-Based Human-Centered Cognitive Task Decision Making and Information Performance.