Peaceful Protest, Political Regimes, and the Social Media Challenge

Abstract

Information and communication technologies (ICT) have transformed with the advent of the Internet and the diffusion of cellular-based communications. Previous research has examined the effects of horizontal ICT on collective violence, but the effects on non-violent expressions are not well understood. Using social conflict data from Africa and Latin America between 1990 and 2011, this study employs negative binomial regression models to explore the distinct effects of the spread of social media on peaceful protests within democratic, anocratic, and autocratic regimes. Multiple regression models find strong statistical evidence in support of a positive relationship between social media and peaceful protest in anocratic regimes. Autocratic and anocratic states will thus increasingly find themselves in a social media challengerepress horizontal ICT or embrace it and its effectsas their populations seek democratization.

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Document Details

Document Type
Technical Report
Publication Date
Jun 01, 2016
Accession Number
AD1026156

Entities

People

  • Geoffrey D. Childs
  • Randolph Ii J. Fleming

Organizations

  • Naval Postgraduate School

Tags

Communities of Interest

  • Engineered Resilient Systems

DTIC Thesaurus Topics

  • Civil War
  • Data Sets
  • Digital Media
  • Geography
  • Governments
  • International Organizations
  • Latin America
  • Media
  • Mobile Phones
  • Political Movements
  • Political Science
  • Regression Analysis
  • Social Media
  • Social Sciences
  • Statistical Analysis
  • United States
  • Violence

Readers

  • Political Violence and Terrorism Studies.