Determining a Retention Model for the Selected Marine Corps Reserve

Abstract

This thesis develops a retention model for the Selected Marine Corps Reserve (SMCR). Data for this model were pulled from the Marine Corps Total Force Data Warehouse for the fiscal years: 2009 through 2015. The model forecasts SMCR continuation requirements in lieu of reenlistment requirements because reenlistment contracts in the Marine Corps Reserve are not specific to a particular reserve sub-component. Using Markov-chain forecasting, the model applies transition rates to the current-year SMCR enlisted inventory to determine the future state of the inventory, by grade and military occupational specialty (MOS). The forecasted inventory is subtracted from the Grade Adjusted Recapitulation (GAR) to arrive at the requisite number of continuations by grade and MOS. The GAR, provided by Headquarters, United States Marine Corps (HQMC), identifies optimal inventory. Manpower planners can use the forecasted continuation requirements to shape retention initiatives and prioritize resources.

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Document Details

Document Type
Technical Report
Publication Date
Mar 01, 2016
Accession Number
AD1027195

Entities

People

  • Andrew D. Dausman

Organizations

  • Naval Postgraduate School

Tags

Communities of Interest

  • Biomedical
  • Human Systems

DTIC Thesaurus Topics

  • Business Administration
  • Careers
  • Contracts
  • Data Sets
  • Management Personnel
  • Manpower
  • Marine Corps
  • Markov Chains
  • Military Occupational Specialties
  • Organizational Structure
  • Personnel Management
  • Probability
  • Recruiting
  • Reenlistment
  • Spreadsheet Software
  • United States
  • United States Naval Academy

Readers

  • Computational Modeling and Simulation
  • Naval Personnel Management