Analyzing the Rationales Behind Russia's Intervention in Ukraine
Abstract
This thesis examines the rationales behind Russian President Vladimir Putins decision to intervene in Ukraine through the lenses of neoclassical realism and prospect theory. The risk-acceptant decision to employ hybrid warfare in Crimea was fundamentally due to Putins loss aversion. Since Putin frames his political decision-making reference point in the realm of losses, his decision sought to prevent the imminent losses of Ukraines Russian-oriented government, Russias influence in Ukraine, and Putins own political power at home. It also sought to somewhat recover from the catastrophic loss of the Soviet Unions territorial possessions, population, and status. Putin exploited Western leaders naivet and vulnerabilities to prepare a geopolitical landscape wherein Russia could act without incurring excessive costs. Emboldened by Russias large financial reserves and backed by Russias seemingly irrational threats of cutting off essential European gas supplies and launching nuclear attacks, Putin correctly anticipated a limited economic sanctions response and a negligible military response from the West. Putins decision furthered Russias interests by acquiring Crimea, the strategically indispensable port of Sevastopol, and vast Black Sea region resources. Such action also thwarted the expansion of Western institutions in Ukraine and incited fervent Russian ethno-nationalism, boosting Putins domestic approval ratings to an unprecedented level.
Document Details
- Document Type
- Technical Report
- Publication Date
- Mar 01, 2016
- Accession Number
- AD1027619
Entities
People
- Kevin T. Thomas
Organizations
- Naval Postgraduate School