Ensemble Prediction of Tropical Cyclone Genesis

Abstract

In this project, we develop an ensemble tropical cyclone (TC) genesis forecast model based on multiple data sources including NOGAPS, NCEP and ECMWF global model output for the period of 2004-2012. A nonlinear regression formulation is used to combine optimal key meteorological variables that control TC formation. The constructed TC genesis forecast model is implemented and tested at Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC).

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Document Details

Document Type
Technical Report
Publication Date
Feb 23, 2017
Accession Number
AD1029794

Entities

People

  • Tianming Li

Organizations

  • University of HawaiĘ»i System

Tags

Communities of Interest

  • Materials and Manufacturing Processes

DTIC Thesaurus Topics

  • Atmospheric Sciences
  • Climate
  • Climate Change
  • Convection
  • Cyclones
  • Data Analysis
  • Department Of Defense
  • Environment
  • False Alarms
  • Frequency
  • Marine Meteorology
  • Meteorological Phenomena
  • Meteorology
  • Phase Transformations
  • Tropical Cyclones
  • Weather Forecasting
  • Wind

Fields of Study

  • Environmental science

Readers

  • Adaptive Control and Estimation with Uncertainty in Dynamic Systems.
  • Atmospheric Science/Meteorology