The US Navy's RELO ensemble prediction system and its performance in the Gulf of Mexico

Abstract

The US Navy's relocatable (RELO) ensemble prediction system is fully described and is examined in the Gulf of Mexico for 2010. After briefly describing the ensemble transfer (ET) method for the initial perturbation generation, we introduce a new time-deformation technique to generate the surface forcing perturbations from the atmospheric model fields. The extended forecast time (EFT) is introduced to quantify the advantages of the ensemble mean forecasts over a single deterministic forecast. The ensemble spread and its growth are investigated together with their relations with the ensemble forecast accuracy, reliability and skill.

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Document Details

Document Type
Technical Report
Publication Date
Aug 07, 2013
Accession Number
AD1031043

Entities

People

  • Clark Rowley
  • Gregg Jacobs
  • M. S. Wei

Organizations

  • United States Naval Research Laboratory

Tags

Communities of Interest

  • Cyber
  • Energy and Power Technologies
  • Ground and Sea Platforms
  • Space

DTIC Thesaurus Topics

  • Accuracy
  • Air Force
  • Boundary Layer
  • Computational Fluid Dynamics
  • Computational Science
  • Equations
  • Gaussian Distributions
  • Grids
  • Information Science
  • Lead Time
  • Mathematical Filters
  • Meteorology
  • Military Research
  • Oceans
  • Reliability
  • Surface Temperature
  • Weather Forecasting

Fields of Study

  • Environmental science

Readers

  • Atmospheric Science/Meteorology
  • Ocean-Atmosphere Mesoscale Modeling, Data Assimilation, and Flux Boundary Layers
  • Theoretical Analysis.