Infection Casualty Estimation (ICE) Model: Predicting Sepsis in Nuclear Detonation Burn Patient Populations using Procalcitonin as a Biomarker
Abstract
Individuals exposed to nuclear weapon environments may be injured or killed from the primary blast wave, thermal pulse and ionizing radiation. Burn casualties surviving the initial blast wave are at an increased risk of developing infections that, ultimately, may result in sepsis. Sepsis, a life-threatening condition resulting from an uncontrolled systemic inflammatory response, is associated with high rates of mortality. Consequently, the risk of sepsis in burn casualties creates a significant burden on emergency departments and intensive care units (ICUs) to identify high-risk patients for early intervention and treatment. The Infection Casualty Estimation(ICE) model predicts the risk of developing sepsis as a function of the percentage of total body surface area ( TBSA) burned. This model was developed using clinical data of burn patients and measurements of procalcitonin (PCT), a biomarker of sepsis. The model predicts PCT levels of burn patients as a function of TBSA, and compares these values to clinically derived benchmarks to predict the risk of sepsis. The ICE model can be used by medical planners to estimate expected medical burden in an IND scenario.
Document Details
- Document Type
- Technical Report
- Publication Date
- Jun 06, 2017
- Accession Number
- AD1034828
Entities
People
- Isabel Zaru-roque
- Jacob Bellman
- Jason Pirone
- Stephen Beaulieu
Organizations
- Applied Research Associates (United States)