Adaptive Decision Making Using Probabilistic Programming and Stochastic Optimization

Abstract

This work seeks to understand the connections between learning and decision making under uncertainty. Specifically, we ask that question: when we are going to use learned models within the loop of a larger decision making process, how should we alter the learning procedure or somehow tune the learning to the specific needs of the actual decision making task? To answer this question, we developed a theory of task based model learning, learning models tuned not (just) for predictive accuracy, but to optimize the closed loop performance of a decision making procedure (specifically, those based on stochastic optimization) that uses these models as an intermediate step. Training such models requires that we differentiate through an optimization problem, for which we developed the theory and implementations. On several tasks, we show that such learning substantially outperforms traditional learning processes, where the learning and decision making stages are separate.

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Document Details

Document Type
Technical Report
Publication Date
Jan 01, 2018
Accession Number
AD1045845

Entities

People

  • J. Z. Kolter

Organizations

  • Carnegie Mellon University

Tags

Communities of Interest

  • Autonomy
  • Energy and Power Technologies
  • Human Systems

DTIC Thesaurus Topics

  • Accuracy
  • Air Force
  • Artificial Intelligence
  • Artificial Intelligence Software
  • Computational Science
  • Computer Languages
  • Computer Programming
  • Computers
  • Electrical Grids
  • Information Processing
  • Information Science
  • Information Systems
  • Machine Learning
  • Neural Networks
  • Operations Research
  • Optimization
  • Probabilistic Models

Fields of Study

  • Computer science

Readers

  • Adaptive Control and Estimation with Uncertainty in Dynamic Systems.
  • Neural Network Machine Learning.
  • Team-Based Human-Centered Cognitive Task Decision Making and Information Performance.

Technology Areas

  • AI & ML
  • AI & ML - Machine Learning Algorithms
  • AI & ML - Neural Networks