Survival Analysis of US Air Force Officer Retention Rate
Abstract
As part of the effort to ensure proper retention rates for rated officers, retention models are created by the Air Force Personnel division that assist in predicting future retention patterns and accession needs. The techniques for creating these models, known as the sustainment line, involve utilizing average retention percentages obtained from historical data. In this study, more statistical-based methods involving logistic regression analysis and survival analysis are utilized to obtain similar retention models for rated officers. The survival analysis curve produces similar results to the sustainment line, but the sustainment line currently employed is a one-dimensional view of retention patterns. It simply models the rate at which officers leave. The value of the survival curve created in this study is that it can be updated very quickly, is flexible in its construction, and can incorporate covariates into the model that are significant to retention rates. The Air Force has long known that there are external (e.g., economic) factors that impact retention. Using a survival analysis regression model instead of simply modeling the rate at which officers leave, this study was able to identify six demographic and one economic factor that may be significant to rated officer retention.
Document Details
- Document Type
- Technical Report
- Publication Date
- Mar 23, 2017
- Accession Number
- AD1051631
Entities
People
- Courtney N. Franzen
Organizations
- Air Force Institute of Technology