Arctic Thawing and Increased Accessibility: Implications For Military Policy Today
Abstract
The purpose of this paper is to examine how increased recent Arctic accessibility should affect United States (U.S.) Arctic strategy and military policy. As this region opens for exploration, previously dormant tensions could lead to international conflict. This paper uses the scenario planning framework to select driving forces that could impact Arctic developments and relationships, and then to develop four potential alternative futures. The paper analyzes these alternative futures and explores potential implications for U.S. strategists and military leaders, with a consideration to the probability and risks associated with each scenario. Key findings include the critical need to secure Arctic sea routes, a growing trend of non-Arctic nations to delve into Arctic matters, and the lack of U.S. presence in key Arctic debates. Key recommendations include the need to strengthen international cooperative forums and regulations, develop more accessible and available infrastructure in the region, and improve communication and transport capabilities for Arctic waters. The paper concludes that a greater comprehension of resource distribution in the Arctic is necessary, that non-Arctic matters (e.g., resource availability in other areas) are also important considerations in developing Arctic policy, and that the scenario planning process is effective for preparing for future Arctic developments.
Document Details
- Document Type
- Technical Report
- Publication Date
- Feb 17, 2017
- Accession Number
- AD1054631
Entities
People
- Warren C. Casbeer
Organizations
- Air Command and Staff College