Bomber Assurance and Deterrence Missions: Effect on North Korean Discourse
Abstract
Nuclear deterrence depends on the capability and credibility of nuclear forces. The credibility of those forces exists primarily in the adversary's mind. Measuring the adversaries mind presents many difficulties, especially in North Korea. State propaganda provides an estimation of the mindset of a totalitarian regime. The U.S. military can measure deterrence by studying North Koreas propaganda and gaining some insight into the mindset of the DPRK leadership. Specifically, the U.S. military uses highly publicized and visible bomber flights to conduct nuclear deterrence. Because of their pointed usage over the Korean Peninsula, Bomber Assurance and Deterrence (BAAD) flights provide a way to measure the effect of nuclear deterrence through the lens of DPRK propaganda. BAAD missions cause an increase in hostile rhetoric from the Democratic Peoples Republic of Korea, and therefore a measurable effect on deterrence. I will test this by measuring the change in slope of the KCNAwatch.co Threat Index before and after a BAAD event and analyze it using Average Treatment Effect. The evidence used in this study did not support the hypothesis, but it also did not reject the hypothesis. Most likely, more BAAD events need to be evaluated to provide a definitive analysis.
Document Details
- Document Type
- Technical Report
- Publication Date
- Mar 17, 2017
- Accession Number
- AD1054978
Entities
People
- Jonathan D King
Organizations
- Air Command and Staff College