Modernizing USAF Escalation Control
Abstract
This Graduate Research Project (GRP) will assess how the United States Air Force (USAF) can implement escalation control operations. Escalation control theory models were once capable of predicting escalation with an accuracy up to 98% . However, the study of escalation control stagnated after the end of the Cold War. This GRP strives to revisit escalation control in two major phases. First, a qualitative literature review regarding escalation control and nuclear deterrence is used to formulate a qualitative interview question set aimed at a broad Whole of Government research base. This interview pool includes senior leaders and experts across the Department of Defense (DoD), Department of Energy (DoE), and the US Government. The qualitative research interview combines the top ten escalation control principles found in the literature, and attempts to detect post-Cold War changes in escalation control dynamics. In the second phase of this study, quantitative analysis will be utilized to establish which areas of escalation control the USAF can improve upon. The areas of improvement recommended by this research include; 1) auditing conventional plans for adversary nuclear thresholds, 2) building more confidence in adversary behavior modeling, and 3) introduction of nuclear escalation control objectives into conventional Mission Type Orders (MTO).
Document Details
- Document Type
- Technical Report
- Publication Date
- Jun 15, 2017
- Accession Number
- AD1055425
Entities
People
- Justin L. Gamel
Organizations
- Air Force Institute of Technology