Perils of the Gray Zone: Paradigms Lost, Paradoxes Regained
Abstract
In the long years since the 9/11 attacks on America, the wide-ranging war on terror has morphed in to terrors war on the world. Terrorist incidents have increased seven-fold, with the casualties caused by such attacks more than quintupling.1 Just as troubling, since the start of the current decade the overall number of wars under way has increased nearly a thirdfrom 31 to 41.2 There is much overlap between the worst of these conflicts and the number of terrorist incidents, with Iraq, Afghanistan, Syria, and Yemen heading the list in recent years. Paradoxically, the first two of the countries listed have seen extended, very expensive, yet problematic American invasions and occupations. The American military footprint has been light in Syria and Yemen, but these wars have also proved vexing. If these challenges were not enough, plaguing the lower end of the spectrum of conflict as they do, there are serious threats at the levels of the mid-range and major powers as well. Roguish regional states like Iran and North Korea each pose grave problems. The Islamist regime in Tehran oversees an arc of strategic involvement in wars ranging from Syria to the southern Arabian Peninsula; supports the vibrant, violent Hezbollah organization; and cultivates covert nodes, cells, and networks throughout the world.3 As for North Korea, Kim Jong Uns vision is focused primarily on continuing his familys totalitarian dynasty. But a key aspect of his strategy includes the development of a robust nuclear deterrent, something seen as highly threatening in capitals ranging from Washington to Beijing. Mention of Beijing is a reminder of the rise of China, and of its increasingly bumptious policies and actionsfrom reef enhancement to edgy sea patrolsin the East and South China Seas.
Document Details
- Document Type
- Technical Report
- Publication Date
- Jul 01, 2018
- Accession Number
- AD1056024
Entities
People
- John Arquilla
Organizations
- Naval Postgraduate School