Assessing the Reliability of the B-1B Lancer Using Survival Analysis
Abstract
During the 2017 posture statement to the US Senate Armed Services Committee, the Secretary of the Air Force and Chief of Staff of the Air Force stated the Air Force suffers from shrinking aircraft inventory, aging aircraft fleets, and flying beyond expected service life. These trends are not exception to the B-1B Lancer, which has been in service since 1986. Recently, the B-1B Lancer has maintained the lowest mission capable (MC) rates, 47.7 percent. The purpose of this research is to explore the failure rates of the B-1B Lancer using survival analysis that could help better understand the failure behavior of the B-1B Lancer. A Cox proportional hazards regression model with frailty confirms the existence of unobserved heterogeneity or frailty in our analysis. When the frailty is controlled, combat missions increase failure rates. Other variables, mainly flight hour or sortie duration related variables, are inconclusive and require further analysis. This study proposes insights based on findings and suggests future research directions.
Document Details
- Document Type
- Technical Report
- Publication Date
- Mar 22, 2018
- Accession Number
- AD1056415
Entities
People
- Francisco J Rodriguez
Organizations
- Air Force Institute of Technology