U.S. Presence and the Incidence of Conflict

Abstract

There is an ongoing debate about the effects of U.S. military presence on conflict around the globe. In one view, U.S. military presence helps to deter adversaries, restrain U.S. partners from adopting provocative policies, and make it easier for the United States to achieve its aims without the use of force. In another view, U.S. military presence tends to provoke adversaries and encourage allies to adopt more reckless policies, and it increases the likelihood that the United States will be involved in combat. The authors of this report analyze historical data to assess how U.S. military presence in particular, U.S. troop presence and military assistanceis associated with the interstate and intrastate conflict behavior of states and non-state actors. Troop presence and military assistance have different effects. Stationing U.S. troops abroad may help deter interstate war. A large U.S. regional troop presence may reduce the likelihood of interstate conflict in two ways: by deterring potential U.S. adversaries from initiating interstate wars or by restraining U.S. allies from initiating militarized behavior. However, U.S. military presence may increase interstate militarized activities short of war. U.S. adversaries may be more likely to initiate militarized disputes against states with a larger U.S. in-country troop presence. U.S. troop presence does not appear to reduce the risk of intrastate conflict or affect the level of state repression. U.S. military assistance is not associated with changes in interstate conflict behavior. However, provision of U.S. military assistance may be associated with increased state repression and incidence of civil war. These findings have implications for near-term decision making on U.S. forward troop presence in Europe and Asia.

Open PDF

Document Details

Document Type
Technical Report
Publication Date
Aug 03, 2018
Accession Number
AD1057209

Entities

People

  • Angela O'Mahony
  • Bryan A. Frederick
  • Jakub P. Hlavka
  • Jennifer Kavanagh
  • Matthew Lane
  • Matthew Povlock
  • Miranda Priebe
  • Stephen Watts
  • Thomas S. Szayna
  • Trevor G. Johnston

Organizations

  • RAND Corporation

Tags

Communities of Interest

  • Energy and Power Technologies
  • Engineered Resilient Systems
  • Human Systems

DTIC Thesaurus Topics

  • Air Force
  • Civil War
  • Contingency Operations (Military)
  • Department Of State
  • Ethnic Groups
  • Governments
  • Intergovernmental Organizations
  • International Conflicts
  • International Law
  • International Organizations
  • International Relations
  • International Security
  • Military Science
  • Minority Groups
  • National Politics
  • National Security
  • Treaties

Readers

  • East Asian Political and Security Studies within the Soviet Union
  • Strategic Security Studies