Predicting U.S. Army First Term Attrition After Initial Entry Training
Abstract
The United States Army recently announced a reduction of its 2018 recruiting goal due to a challenging recruiting environment and a shrinking population of eligible candidates. However, the Sergeant Major of the Army has stated that the current improvement in the retention of existing soldiers should mitigate the loss of new recruits. The goal of this research is to identify demographic and administrative factors of active component, first-term enlisted soldiers who have completed their Initial Entry Training to construct predictive models capable of identifying soldiers with high chances of failure in completing their initial contractual obligation. We construct a binary logistic regression model and a random forest classification model to predict a soldiers probability of first-term attrition based on the individuals unique service record .We find that a soldiers deployment history and the duration of the initial contract are significant predictorsof whether a soldier will complete his or her first term. Knowledge of the key factors and other influencingvariables assists the Army Resiliency Directorate in creation of models and tools to better advise Armyleadership and develop intervention strategies and preventative measures to prevent the loss of first-termsoldiers.
Document Details
- Document Type
- Technical Report
- Publication Date
- Jun 01, 2018
- Accession Number
- AD1060073
Entities
People
- Karey J. Speten
Organizations
- Naval Postgraduate School