Simplifying Complexity with Strategic Foresight and Scenario Planning
Abstract
The world is constantly evolving and changing, which often results in significant impacts on society and the crisis management community. Staying ahead of the curve requires not only an understanding of systems and complexity, but also creative and collaborative thinking and action. Proactive emergency management agencies have recognized the need to reflect on the challenges that will come with future crises and some, such as the US Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), have conducted strategic foresight activities (FEMA 2012b). FEMA seeks to understand how the world around us is changing, and how those changes may affect the future of emergency management. They engaged the diverse emergency management community in a collective exploration of issues, trends, and other factors that could impact the future environment, and to support expanded strategic thinking and planning for the future. Strategic foresight is a recent discipline, originating in the 1960s, that allows us to create functional views of alternative futures and possibilities. Through this process, organizations are better prepared for possible threats and are more prepared to take advantage of emerging opportunities. Rather than predicting or forecasting the future, foresight allows us to examine the external environment for trends and leverage those insights to create images of the emerging landscape. These well-informed maps of the future allow us to test our current strategy, develop breakthrough innovations, and create transformative change.
Document Details
- Document Type
- Technical Report
- Publication Date
- Oct 01, 2018
- Accession Number
- AD1060865
Entities
People
- Deon Canyon
Organizations
- Asia-Pacific Center for Security Studies