AI and Autonomy in War: Understanding and Mitigating Risks

Abstract

This report examines commonly held concerns about AI and autonomy in war. We find that the overall premises for these concerns are either out of step with the current state of the technology, or they do not consider the way military systems are actually used. These concerns are not spurious-- they can lead to much-needed debates and discussions regarding ethical issues of this emerging technology. However, the real risk in a military context (expressed in operational outcomes such as civilian casualties and fratricide) is low from these common concerns. We then examine factors associated with the current and near-future state of the technology that could introduce operational risk if not mitigated, and we identify ways to mitigate them. Finally we note that AI and autonomy provide opportunities, not just risks. States should look for opportunities to reduce risk and improve the conduct of war.

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Document Details

Document Type
Technical Report
Publication Date
Aug 24, 2018
Accession Number
AD1060954

Entities

People

  • Lawrence Lewis

Organizations

  • Center for Naval Analyses

Tags

Communities of Interest

  • Autonomy
  • Biomedical
  • Human Systems
  • Space
  • Weapons Technologies

DTIC Thesaurus Topics

  • Air Force
  • Artificial Intelligence
  • Artificial Intelligence Software
  • Autonomous Systems
  • Autonomous Weapons
  • Autonomy
  • Computer Programs
  • Computers
  • Emerging Technology
  • International Law
  • Military Applications
  • Military Operations
  • Military Science
  • Social Media
  • Test And Evaluation
  • United States
  • Weapons Effects

Readers

  • Economics
  • Military History / Militaries and War Studies
  • Strategic Security Studies