SMA/CENTCOM Afghanistan Project Phase II Insights

Abstract

This paper provides the TRADOC G27 Models and Simulations Branch initial assessment for Phases I and II of the Strategic Multilayer Assessment (SMA) CENTCOM Afghanistan project. Phase I specifically assessed the impact of three different hypothetical Afghan government constructs: Centralized, Enhanced Local Governance and Decentralized (regional). Phase II focused on the potential outcomes of a negotiated settlement including: truce, power-sharing Afghan government, and reconciliation. TRADOC G27 used the Athena Simulation to model the discrete futures listed above in order to assess the political and social outcomes of each future by measuring control, influence, support, security and the relationship between the population and GIRoA.2 This analysis was descriptive rather than prescriptive. Follow on efforts will use the results from the 19 November 2018 United States Institute for Peace workshop in order to further refine these potential futures.

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Document Details

Document Type
Technical Report
Publication Date
Nov 15, 2018
Accession Number
AD1066682

Entities

Organizations

  • United States Army Training and Doctrine Command

Tags

DTIC Thesaurus Topics

  • Afghanistan
  • Asia
  • Autonomy
  • Battlefields
  • Continents
  • Department Of Defense
  • Geographic Regions
  • Governments
  • Jet Propulsion
  • National Governments
  • National Guard
  • Perception
  • Permutations
  • Security
  • Simulations
  • Simulators
  • Supervision
  • United States
  • United States Government
  • Workshops

Readers

  • Computational Modeling and Simulation
  • International Relations and Conflict Resolution
  • Military and Counterinsurgency Studies.