The Unknowable Dao of China: What Scenario Planning Tells US Military Planners about China through 2030
Abstract
The project of this monograph is to use scenario planning methodology to develop a range of possible futures for the People's Republic of China (PRC) through 2030. Chapter one lays out the background and methodology of scenario planning. Chapter two uses the Chinese economy, Beijing's policy approach to the current international system, and the reaction of China's neighbors to China's rise to define a set of plausible futures. Chapter three further develops three of these futures into scenarios. The three scenarios are: "Marathon Winner," where China's continued growth results in an aggressive challenge to the current international status quo and provokes balancing policies on its periphery, "Drum Beats," where economic stagnation drives greater domestic nationalism and external military adventurism, and "Rising Tide," where continued economic strength allows China to draw its periphery closer and attempt to reshape the international order from within. These scenarios inform policy options that are laid out in Chapter four. The scenarios describe the future relationship between the United States and China as defined by completion instead of cooperation. Driven by this sense of competition, US military policy should seek to bolster the strength of alliances and partnerships and steadfastly meet any Chinese challenges to the rule based international system. By shoring up relationships with like-minded nations and defending the international system, the United States will be best able to maintain its position of relative advantage vis a vis the People's Republic of China.
Document Details
- Document Type
- Technical Report
- Publication Date
- Mar 27, 2018
- Accession Number
- AD1070948
Entities
People
- Robert Iii L. Boyce
Organizations
- School of Advanced Military Studies