The People Pipeline: A Method for Evaluating and Predicting Demographic Changes in the Military
Abstract
This paper describes a method for evaluating and predicting demographic changes in the military. Entry level officers are followed through the military pipeline from 1975, when they first entered the military, to 1993, when they should have achieved either an 05 or 06 rank. Demographic changes in terms of the percent of Blacks, Hispanics, Whites, and Women in the military at advanced ranks are recorded and used to make future predictions. An assumption is that progression through the military pipeline during the past 18 years can be used to predict progression during the period 1993 to 2011. For comparison purposes, a second prediction method (or scenario) is used that assumes that progression through the pipeline is the same for all groups. Progression through the pipeline during 1975 to 1993 was not equal for all groups. Specifically, a decline in the percentage of Black, Hispanic, and Women officers occurred as these groups progress through the pipeline, particularly after 10 years of service. It is projected that during the next 18 years, Hispanics, Blacks, and Women will continue to be underrepresented in the military, particularly at the higher officer ranks (i.e., 06 and above). However, the rate of growth of these groups in the military will exceed that in the general population, suggesting that demographic changes in the military, although occurring slowly, are at least moving in the right direction.
Document Details
- Document Type
- Technical Report
- Publication Date
- Sep 01, 1994
- Accession Number
- AD1072705
Entities
People
- James W. Grosch