Predicting Failures of the Brazilian Air Force Tucano Fleet Using Survival Analysis

Abstract

During the life of an aircraft, several failures may occur causing unplanned maintenance and costs of parts, labor, transportation, lost opportunities, and operations, among others. The prediction of these events becomes especially difficult for new airframes, since they do not have many flight hours or enough data to observe failures. This study analyzes and model the time between failures (TBF) of the Brazilian Air Force T-27 Tucano fleet by applying various non-parametric, semi-parametric, and parametric statistical models, to the TBF, such as the descriptive statistics, Kaplan-Meier estimators, Cox proportional hazards models, with or without frailty, and survival regression models, with or without frailty. The study concludes by proposing a failure model that can be applied to the new similar airframes.

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Document Details

Document Type
Technical Report
Publication Date
Mar 01, 2019
Accession Number
AD1077518

Entities

People

  • Luciana M. Monteiro

Organizations

  • Air Force Institute of Technology

Tags

Communities of Interest

  • Air Platforms
  • Biomedical

DTIC Thesaurus Topics

  • Air Force
  • Aircrafts
  • Airframes
  • Avionics
  • Data Analysis
  • Data Science
  • Descriptive Analytics
  • Economic Analysis
  • Estimators
  • Information Science
  • Logistics
  • Maintenance
  • Predictive Modeling
  • Statistical Analysis
  • Statistics
  • Supply Chain Management
  • Survival

Readers

  • Aerospace logistics and air mobility.
  • Aviation Safety Risk Assessment.
  • Statistical inference.