Examining the EXPRESS Supportability Module: Implementing an Autoregressive Distributed Lag Approach with Air Force Maintenance Data
Abstract
EXPRESS (Execution and Prioritization of Repairs Support System) is a program integral to the Air Force reparable supply chain. Daily, EXPRESS relies on a number of data sources and modules like the Supportability Module to determine which necessary repairs can be made. The Supportability Module examines the prioritized list of repairs and checks four constraints in order to decide whether each repair can be made given current resources. A single constraint failure means that subsequent resource checks are not made before evaluating the next repair, leading to missing data in the EXPRESS table. In this study, a time series analysis via explanatory autoregressive distributed lag models was conducted using EXPRESS and MICAP (mission capability) data to examine possible connections between missing constraint values in the EXPRESS table and future MICAPs. These models suggested that up to 0.793 MICAP days are added for each additional parts failure missing in the EXPRESS table. The potential for the use of time series models with maintenance data was also explored. Model diagnostics suggest that maintenance data is too volatile and noisy for regression-based methods and that stochastic methods or simulation may prove more useful.
Document Details
- Document Type
- Technical Report
- Publication Date
- Mar 21, 2019
- Accession Number
- AD1077564
Entities
People
- Troy J. St. Peter
Organizations
- Air Force Institute of Technology