Improving Solar Eruption Forecasting using Active Region Evolution

Abstract

An active region tracking system has been successfully updated (Work Package 1) to provide an improved warning system for potential flares, and an ensemble system has been developed to provide an improved starting probability for are forecasts (Work Package 2). Both outputs have been successful tested for operational use by the Met Office, and are openly available to the wider space weather community for science collaborative efforts.

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Document Details

Document Type
Technical Report
Publication Date
Jun 18, 2019
Accession Number
AD1077587

Entities

People

  • Sophie A Murray

Organizations

  • Trinity College Dublin

Tags

Communities of Interest

  • Space

DTIC Thesaurus Topics

  • Air Force
  • Air Force Research Laboratories
  • Algorithms
  • Automatic Tracking
  • Case Studies
  • Communities
  • Coronal Mass Ejections
  • Delphi Method
  • Earth Sciences
  • False Alarms
  • Reliability
  • Solar Activity
  • Solar Flares
  • Space Weather
  • Universities
  • Warning Systems
  • Weather Forecasting

Readers

  • Computational Modeling and Simulation
  • Ocean-Atmosphere Mesoscale Modeling, Data Assimilation, and Flux Boundary Layers
  • Systems Analysis and Design

Technology Areas

  • Space
  • Space - Satellites