Comparing Dual-Polarization Radar Lightning Forecast Methods Across Southwest Utah
Abstract
This study tests two lightning initiation prediction methods developed for the Cape Canaveral Air Force Station (CCAFS) and Kennedy Space Center (KSC) areas in the new geographical region of Utah. One method is composed of Dual-Polarization (DP) radar variables and the other uses non-DP radar parameters. The non-DP method, from Gremillion and Orville (1999), is reflectivity (Z) >- 40 dBZ for two consecutive volume scans at the -10 deg C thermal height. The DP method, from Travis (2015), is Z >- 36.5 dBZ with differential reflectivity (ZDR) 0:31 dB at the -10 deg C thermal height. Performance metrics, lead times, and Z and ZDR optimizations show that traditional radar parameters for lightning initiation are geographically robust and that DP lightning prediction is not geographically robust. This result suggests that radar/lightning optimizations must be completed regionally to best forecast lightning. Additional results conclude that Z is the determining factor for Utah lightning initiation and that ZDR is negligible.
Document Details
- Document Type
- Technical Report
- Publication Date
- Mar 21, 2019
- Accession Number
- AD1078165
Entities
People
- Daniel O Katuzienski
Organizations
- Air Force Institute of Technology