Source Term Estimation of Atmospheric Pollutants Using an Ensemble of HYSPLIT Concentration Simulations
Abstract
In support of Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty (CTBT) monitoring, this study works toward source term estimation (STE) of dispersive pollutants using a novel method|an ensemble of forward trajectory concentration simulations using a meteorology-coupled dispersion model. STE of a plume of atmospheric pollutants can be solved in a variety of ways, but little has been studied on the sensitivity between the horizontal resolution of the meteorology data in relation to the dispersion model and the results derived from known concentrations at multiple locations. This study tackles both these issues of resolution and observation sensitivities by employing the Hybrid Single Particle LagrangianIntegrated Trajectory (HYSPLIT) model, coupled with data from the 1983 Cross-Appalachian Tracer Experiment (CAPTEX), to determine the location of the experimental tracer releases. Furthermore, the study then applies the SRM methodology to locate the detonation location of two nuclear tests conducted in the 1950s at the Nevada Test Site (NTS). Knowing the sensitivity of the STE solution based on the number of available measurements is useful for determining the location of a release of radionuclides into the atmosphere in support of nuclear treaty monitoring.
Document Details
- Document Type
- Technical Report
- Publication Date
- Mar 21, 2019
- Accession Number
- AD1078237
Entities
People
- Casey L. Zoellick
Organizations
- Air Force Institute of Technology