Dereliction of Operational Expertise: How Self-Efficacy Shapes Decisionmaking

Abstract

In 1995, LtGen(R) Paul Van Riper pitted bankers against US Marine Corps generals in two contests a stock exchange simulation and a wargame. The venture capitalists won both exercises, beating standing operational leaders that represented decades of deployment and experience. LtGen(R) Van Riper believed that the money managers success stemmed from resiliency and confidence in ambiguous situations. Learning from this failure, the US Army may be able to increase operational leader effectiveness by fostering self-efficacy confidence in relation to observed ability. A literature review discusses the doctrine and theory behind how commanders discern the environment, learn as adults, and explains how leaders make rapid decisions during execution. Human subjects research replicates the general aspects of the 1995 wargame, now modified for play between instructors from the US Army Command and General Staff College and civilian recreational board-gamers. Information collected explores the validity of LTG(R) Van Riper's claim while simultaneously measuring confidence levels. The discussion describes the impact of confidence on leader cognitive functions when making rapid decisions. Recommendations provide options on utilizing self-efficacy in leader development.

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Document Details

Document Type
Technical Report
Publication Date
May 23, 2019
Accession Number
AD1083682

Entities

People

  • Aaron J. Tucker

Tags

Communities of Interest

  • Counter WMD
  • Human Systems

DTIC Thesaurus Topics

  • Adaptive Systems
  • Applied Psychology
  • Artillery Units
  • Cognition
  • Doctrine
  • Instructors
  • Judgment
  • Literature Surveys
  • Military Education
  • Military Personnel
  • Military Science
  • Psychology
  • Social Sciences
  • Students
  • Thinking
  • War Games
  • Warfare

Readers

  • Maritime Combat Support and Expeditionary Logistics.
  • Military History of the United States in the 20th Century.
  • STEM Education