Triggers, Traps, and Mackinder's Maps: The Russian Bear, NATO, and the Near Abroad

Abstract

The United States renewed focus on great-power competition means Western leaders must understand why, when, where, and to what end Russia will militarily intervene in world conflicts. Until it waded into the Syrian civil war in 2015, however, post-Cold War Russia projected power only in its near-abroad, specifically, former Soviet Satellite Republic (SSR) nations. This comparative case-study uses three of those interventions. This thesis uses a critical-juncture framework to determine what factors drove Russia to intervene with overt, conventional military force in Georgia (2008) and Ukraine (2014), but not in Estonia (2007). In each case study, the researcher analyzed and compared five aspects: historical relationship with Russia, Russian-diaspora composition, Russian military presence, NATO-member status, and strategic geographic significance to Russia. The researcher found the target countrys NATO-membership status or its strategic geographic significance to Russia were critical in the divergent outcomes.

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Document Details

Document Type
Technical Report
Publication Date
Jun 01, 2018
Accession Number
AD1083731

Entities

People

  • Steven Jr T. Nolan

Organizations

  • Air University

Tags

Communities of Interest

  • Cyber
  • Energy and Power Technologies
  • Human Systems
  • Space
  • Weapons Technologies

DTIC Thesaurus Topics

  • Air Force
  • Business Administration
  • Cyberattacks
  • Foreign Relations
  • Geography
  • Hybrid Warfare
  • Intergovernmental Organizations
  • International Law
  • International Organizations
  • International Relations
  • Military Science
  • National Politics
  • National Security
  • Sociopolitics
  • Terrorists
  • Treaties
  • Warfare

Readers

  • East Asian Political and Security Studies within the Soviet Union
  • International Relations and Conflict Resolution

Technology Areas

  • Space