Exploring the Role Nuclear Weapons Could Play in Deterring Russian Threats to the Baltic States

Abstract

Previous analysis has shown that, given the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO)s current substantial disadvantage in conventional forces for a conflict in the Baltic states (Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania), a Russian invasion there would reach some or all of the capitals within a few days, presenting NATO with a fait accompli. As outlined in the 2018 Nuclear Posture Review, the United States is currently considering tailored deterrence strategies, including options to use nuclear weapons to deter Russian aggression in the Baltic states. What role could the threatened use of nonstrategic nuclear weapons play in deterring such an invasion? What military and other outcomes would nuclear use accomplish, and what are the implications for credibly enhancing extended deterrence? In this report, we seek to answer these questions.

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Document Details

Document Type
Technical Report
Publication Date
Jan 01, 2019
Accession Number
AD1083960

Entities

People

  • Christopher K. Gilmore
  • Danielle C. Tarraf
  • David R. Frelinger
  • Edward Geist
  • J. M. Gilmore
  • Jenny Oberholtzer
  • Paul K. Davis

Organizations

  • RAND Corporation

Tags

Communities of Interest

  • Counter WMD
  • Cyber
  • Engineered Resilient Systems
  • Space
  • Weapons Technologies

DTIC Thesaurus Topics

  • Air Force
  • Armored Personnel Carriers
  • Contingency Operations (Military)
  • Fleet Ballistic Missiles
  • Game Theory
  • Geography
  • Human Behavior
  • Intergovernmental Organizations
  • Military Organizations
  • Military Science
  • National Politics
  • National Security
  • Recreation
  • Strategic Weapons
  • Treaties
  • Warfare
  • Weapons Effects

Fields of Study

  • Political science

Readers

  • International Relations and Conflict Resolution
  • Strategic Security Studies