Next-Generation Rainfall IDF Curves for the Virginian Drainage Area of Chesapeake Bay
Abstract
Probability-based intensity-duration-frequency (IDF) curves are needed but currently lacking for Department of Defense (DoD) to construct and manage its infrastructure in changing climate. The objectives of this project were to: 1) develop an innovative approach for considering rainfall non-stationarity in developing such IDF curves; and 2) apply this approach to the state of Virginia. In this regard, the observed data on 15-min rainfall at 57 gauges and the precipitations projected by twelve pairs of Regional Climate Model (RCM) and Global Circulation Model (GCM) were used. For a given gauge or watershed, in terms of fitting the empirical exceedance probabilities, a best statistical distribution was chosen and then used to create the existing, projected historic, and projected future IDF curves. For a given return period, the projected historic IDF curves were compared with the existing ones to determine the lower and upper limits of the future IDF curve. The most-probable future IDF curve was determined as the average of the twelve curves responding to the GCM-RCM models. In addition, for a given duration and return period, the responding rainfall intensities were used to create a probability-based IDF curve. Further, the areal precipitations for each of the 53 watersheds were used to create the watershed-level future IDF curves. The project results are expected to be a useful and usable tool in guarding against over- or under committing resources.
Document Details
- Document Type
- Technical Report
- Publication Date
- Jun 02, 2019
- Accession Number
- AD1084319
Entities
People
- Xiaomin Yang
- Xixi Wang
- Zhaoyi Cai
Organizations
- Old Dominion University