Consequences of a Precipitous U.S. Withdrawal from Afghanistan

Abstract

In December 2018, President Donald Trump directed the Secretary of Defense to reduce the U.S. troop presence in Afghanistan by half. In this paper, the authors consider the likely effects of an early and complete or near-complete departure unrelated to a negotiated peace settlement. Among the consequences described are that the government in Kabul will begin to lose influence and legitimacy; the Taliban will lose interest in negotiating peace with the United States; and extremist groups will gain additional scope to organize, recruit, and initiate terrorist attacks. Winning in Afghanistan may not be an available option, but losing certainly is, and a precipitous departure, no matter how rationalized, wouldmean choosing to lose.

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Document Details

Document Type
Technical Report
Publication Date
Jan 01, 2019
Accession Number
AD1084826

Entities

People

  • James F. Dobbins
  • Jason H. Campbell
  • Laurel E. Miller
  • Sean Mann

Organizations

  • RAND Corporation

Tags

Communities of Interest

  • Biomedical
  • Human Systems

DTIC Thesaurus Topics

  • Afghanistan Conflict
  • Civil War
  • Civilian Personnel
  • Congress
  • Department Of Defense
  • Governments
  • International Relations
  • Military Personnel
  • National Governments
  • Nato
  • Nato Forces
  • Personnel Management
  • Public Policy
  • Security
  • Terrorism
  • Terrorists
  • United States

Readers

  • International Relations and Conflict Resolution
  • Military and Counterinsurgency Studies.
  • Systems Analysis and Design