Application of the Scale Decomposition Technique for Assessing Radar Reflectivity Forecasts of the Weather Running Estimate-Nowcast Modeling System

Abstract

The Army Weather Running Estimate-Nowcast (WRE-N) Modeling System, which uses the advanced research version of the Weather Research and Forecasting model to generate nowcasts, was modified to improve hydrometeor forecasts in support of flight system testing at the Ronald Reagan Ballistic Missile Defense Test Site on Kwajalein Atoll. One of the modifications made was to enable assimilation of Kwajalein radar reflectivity data. An assessment of the WRE-N was needed to determine the value-added of this modification. Due to the difficulty of verifying forecasts of spatial fields of 1-km above-ground-level reflectivity using traditional methods, a spatial verification technique called scale decomposition was evaluated for possible use because it has the capability to focus on reflectivity objects and assess the quality of the forecast structure in terms of the spatial scale of the error and intensity. It has been used for assessment of precipitation fields that are discontinuous in nature, not unlike those of radar reflectivity. To apply this method of verification, the Wavelet-Stat tool of the National Center for Atmospheric Research's Model Evaluation Tools was used. The results showed that this technique provided an assessment of model skill as a function of reflectivity threshold value and spatial scale complementary with other verification methods.

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Document Details

Document Type
Technical Report
Publication Date
Nov 19, 2019
Accession Number
AD1085290

Entities

People

  • Brian P. Reen
  • Huaqing Cai
  • Jeffrey A. Smith
  • John W. Raby

Organizations

  • United States Army Research Laboratory

Tags

Communities of Interest

  • Weapons Technologies

DTIC Thesaurus Topics

  • Abstracts
  • Ballistic Missiles
  • Case Studies
  • Data Science
  • Decomposition
  • Department Of Defense
  • Experimental Design
  • Ground Level
  • Information Operations
  • Information Science
  • Interdisciplinary Science
  • Kwajalein Atoll
  • Military Research
  • Reflectivity
  • Standards
  • Statistical Analysis
  • Wavelet Transforms

Fields of Study

  • Environmental science

Readers

  • Atmospheric Science/Meteorology
  • Computational Modeling and Simulation
  • Missile Defense Systems.