Quantifying Cost and Schedule Uncertainty for Major Defense Acquisition Programs (MDAPs)

Abstract

RAND Project AIR FORCE (PAF) is engaged in a multiyear projectWeapon System Acquisition and Cost Analysis Umbrella Projectto conduct analyses of interest to the Deputy Assistant Secretary for Acquisition Integration, Office of the Assistant Secretary of the Air Force for Acquisition (SAF/AQX) to improve weapon system acquisition outcomes and develop better cost-estimating tools for use by the acquisition community. Major Defense Acquisition Programs (MDAPs) are required to report programmatic information to Congress on an annual basis in the form of Selected Acquisition Reports (SARs). RAND PAF has developed and maintains a comprehensive database of program cost and schedule information obtained by analyzing and summarizing the contents of the SARs from the inception of each program through the latest out-of-cycle and annual SARs submitted as part of each years Presidents Budget. This database supports ongoing analyses of interest to U.S. Air Force acquisition leadership. One part of PAFs ongoing SAR analyses is the creation of statistical models to assess the likelihood of future cost growth and schedule slip of a program early in its development. This document describes the technical approach and methodology of this research. It should be of interest to decisionmakers and analysts concerned with MDAP cost and schedule growth issues. The research was conducted within PAFs Resource Management Program.

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Document Details

Document Type
Technical Report
Publication Date
Jan 01, 2017
Accession Number
AD1085333

Entities

People

  • Akilah Wallace
  • Julia Pollak
  • Meagan L. Smith
  • Robert S. Leonard
  • Thomas Light

Organizations

  • RAND Corporation

Tags

Communities of Interest

  • Air Platforms
  • Cyber
  • Human Systems
  • Materials and Manufacturing Processes
  • Space
  • Weapons Technologies

DTIC Thesaurus Topics

  • Air Force
  • Congress
  • Contracts
  • Cost Analysis
  • Cost Estimates
  • Databases
  • Department Of Defense
  • Fixed Wing Aircraft
  • Governments
  • Growth Factors
  • Information Retrieval
  • Information Science
  • Logistics
  • Manufacturing
  • Military Acquisition
  • Regression Analysis
  • Statistical Analysis

Readers

  • Aerospace logistics and air mobility.
  • Defense Acquisition Program Management
  • Life Cycle Cost Analysis