U.S. Presence and the Incidence of Conflict
Abstract
This report documents the findings of the project Impact of U.S. Military Posture and Operations on the Incidence of Conflict. For this study, the Deputy Chief of Staff for Intelligence (G-2), United States Army, asked RAND to empirically assess how U.S. forward presence affects state and nonstate actor decisions to engage in conflict. The question is critical to informing on going debates about the effects of forward U.S. presence on conflict around the globe, as well as debates about the size of forward U.S. presence needed in Europe and in East Asia. We defined the key terms, developed hypotheses on the relationship between U.S. forward presence and incidence of conflict, and then, having constructed the necessary databases, tested our hypotheses using statistical analysis. We also drew out the implications of our findings for contemporary debates about U.S. forward presence. The findings of this report should be of interest to those in the U.S. defense community with an interest in long-term planning and strategy for deployment of U.S. forces. This research was sponsored by the Deputy Chief of Staff, G-2, United States Army, and conducted within the RAND Arroyo Centers Strategy, Doctrine, and Resources Program. RAND Arroyo Center, part of the RAND Corporation, is a federally funded research and development center sponsored by the United States Army. The Project Unique Identification Code (PUIC) for the project that produced this document is RAN167268.
Document Details
- Document Type
- Technical Report
- Publication Date
- Jan 01, 2018
- Accession Number
- AD1085595
Entities
People
- Angela O'Mahony
- Bryan A. Frederick
- Jakub P. Hlavka
- Jennifer Kavanagh
- Matthew Lane
- Matthew Povlock
- Miranda Priebe
- Stephen Watts
- Thomas S. Szayna
- Trevor G. Johnston
Organizations
- RAND Corporation