When the Islamic State Comes to Town: The Economic Impact of Islamic State Governance in Iraq and Syria
Abstract
At its peak, the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) controlled vast portions of territory in Iraq and Syria with several million inhabitants. The Islamic State's territorial ambition and desire to conduct state-like governance over this territory are integral to its global ideological appeal. By examining the groups impact on local economic activity in Iraq and Syria, this report seeks to assess the effectiveness of ISIL's governance over its self-styled caliphate. This report leverages publicly available remote sensing data and low-cost commercial satellite imagery to develop a unique, data-driven assessment of the impact that ISIL control and governance have on local economies within ISIL's territory. It paints a bleak picture of economic life under the Islamic State, replete with shortages of electricity, massive refugee flows, reductions in agricultural output, and upticks in violence all associated with ISIL control. At times, ISIL was able to build a dense governing apparatus that helped maintains table local commercial activity, particularly within its strategic capitals in Raqqah and Mosul. At other times, the group inadvertently mismanaged key resources or sought to punish its citizenry rather than govern it. However, this report suggests that decaying economic conditions within the Islamic State are just as much a product of the group's inability to insulate its territory from opposing military forces. Outside pressure against the group successfully prevented the Islamic State from realizing its governing ambitions across significant parts of its caliphate, with major consequences for its ability to support functioning local economies. This report is important for those trying to understand the group's impact on local populations in Iraq and Syria, for those seeking to counter its financing or conduct post conflict stabilization, and for broader efforts to understand the economic impact of insurgent governance.
Document Details
- Document Type
- Technical Report
- Publication Date
- Jan 01, 2017
- Accession Number
- AD1085619
Entities
People
- Alexander D. Rothenberg
- Daniel Egel
- David Stebbins
- Eric Robinson
- Patrick B. Johnston
- Sean Mann
Organizations
- RAND Corporation