Strategic Warning on NATO's Eastern Flank: Pitfalls, Prospects, and Limits
Abstract
Since 2008, Russia's military has embarked on an extensive modernization program designed to overcome shortfalls in readiness, competence, sustainability, and deployability that impeded its operations in Chechnya and Georgia. Subsequent changes in logistics and operational capability have presented the intelligence community (IC) and decisionmakers with new challenges in warning about and responding to potential Russian aggression. Russian operations in Ukraine and Syria have demonstrated improved operational concepts and capabilities, including denial and deception activities and unconventional warfare designed to operate below U.S. and North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) response thresholds; they are also intended to condition allied responses to new operational patterns and deployments. If successful, these activities could inhibit the IC's ability to assess Russias intentions and courses of action within the timelines necessary for policymakers and military commanders to formulate effective responses. Russia has been a relatively low priority for the IC since the end of the Cold War, as new security concerns and recent wars have dominated decisionmakers' attention, and the resources dedicated by both the IC and the military to warning of Russias activities have diminished. However, warning in the Baltics became a major concern for both NATO and U.S. Air Force Europe in 2014, because of Russias military operations and its continuing modernization efforts. This report assesses key elements of six Soviet and Russian actions to provide recommendations for improving warning of Russian military activities along NATO's eastern flank. It also considers the practical limits for what warning improvements can realistically provide and the implications these limitations have for U.S. and NATO decision timelines, force posture, and deterrence.
Document Details
- Document Type
- Technical Report
- Publication Date
- Jan 01, 2018
- Accession Number
- AD1085779
Entities
People
- Mark R. Cozad
Organizations
- RAND Corporation