Ensemble Modeling and Data Assimilation within the Enlil Solar Wind Model
Abstract
Within the terrestrial weather community, ensembles are used regularly to forecast storms. However, for numerical space weather forecasting, which is several decades behind terrestrial weather modeling, the use of ensembles is still in its infancy. This AFOSR grant investigated how ensembles can be used with the Wang-Sheely-Arge Enlil model - the official numerical model used by the NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center - to improve forecast of coronal mass ejection (CME) arrival time at Earth. This grant resulted in several projects that relate to the originally proposed research: An investigation of the theoretical basis for ensemble forecasting of space weather; analysis of the 2012 July 23 energetic CME and the 2010 April 4 magnetic ejecta; and quantitative analysis of the uncertainty or spread in CME parameters that should be used to initiate a space weather ensemble. The grant resulted in two publications in refereed journals, three oral presentations at national or international meetings, and four poster presentations. The grant supported the research of three people - Dr. Cash, Dr. de Koning, and Ms. Devnani.
Document Details
- Document Type
- Technical Report
- Publication Date
- Mar 14, 2019
- Accession Number
- AD1085852
Entities
People
- Curt De Koning
Organizations
- Regents of the University of Colorado