Science-Based Scenario Design: A Proposed Method to Support Political-Strategic Analysis

Abstract

This paper proposes a methodology for improving scenario-based analysis to support political-strategic decision-making for defense planning purposes. It proposes the method of incorporating social scientific findings regarding the causes of war and conflict escalation into analytic assumptions, a process this paper calls "science-based structured scenarios." The paper provides a sample of how this method could be used.

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Document Details

Document Type
Technical Report
Publication Date
Jan 01, 2019
Accession Number
AD1086666

Entities

People

  • Matthew Lane
  • Timothy R. Heath

Organizations

  • RAND Corporation

Tags

Communities of Interest

  • Energy and Power Technologies
  • Ground and Sea Platforms
  • Human Systems
  • Materials and Manufacturing Processes

DTIC Thesaurus Topics

  • Civil War
  • Contingency Operations (Military)
  • Defense Planning
  • Department Of Defense
  • Governments
  • International Conflicts
  • International Organizations
  • International Relations
  • National Security
  • New York
  • Political Science
  • Recreation
  • Social Sciences
  • Territorial Disputes
  • Unified Combatant Commands
  • United States
  • War Colleges

Fields of Study

  • Computer science

Readers

  • Computational Modeling and Simulation
  • Strategic Security Studies
  • Systems Analysis and Design