Four Problems on the Korean Peninsula: North Korea's Expanding Nuclear Capabilities Drive a Complex Set of Problems
Abstract
RAND'S ARROYO CENTER has carefully studied the four Korea-related problems presented in this short report. We have used wargaming analysis that has provided important insights into each of the four problems: North Korea's growing arsenal of nuclear weapons and delivery systems; the massive numbers of North Korean conventional artillery systems that can range major South Korean population centers; the challenge of evacuating U.S., Chinese, and other foreign nationals who live in South Korea in case of a crisis; and what would be required for the United States, the Republic of Korea (ROK), and allies to secure North Korea's nuclear weapons and associated facilities in the event of a failed North Korean state. Surrounding these four problems is the real possibility of other regional powers intervening on the Korean peninsula to protect their interests, as China did during the Korean War in October 1950. One of the major findings from our analysis, and a primary reason we produced this report, is that these problems cannot be viewed and analyzed in isolation from the others. They are directly related and closely linked. Push the button on any one of the problems, and it potentially creates a sequence of events that involves the others. For example, imagine a failing North Korean state that has devolved into factions, causing the United States and regional actors to commence an evacuation of their citizens from Seoul. In the midst of these two evolving crises, a North Korean functioning nuclear device is discovered to have been leaked out of the country, causing the President of the United States to initiate a major military force flow onto the peninsula to deal with loose nuclear weapons in the North. Therefore, as this hypothetical future scenario illustrates, it is essential that the interconnected problems be presented as a related whole.
Document Details
- Document Type
- Technical Report
- Publication Date
- Jan 01, 2019
- Accession Number
- AD1086761
Entities
People
- Andrew Scobell
- Bruce W. Bennett
- Dan Madden
- Gian Gentile
- Michael J. Mazarr
- Timothy M. Bonds
- Yvonne K. Crane
Organizations
- RAND Corporation