Reading the President's Mind: Interpreting National Intent from Patterns and Landmarks, 1987-1996.
Abstract
This monograph identifies signals of national intent during military planning. In times of crisis, national policy is a moving target, especially for military planners trying to anticipate policy and align operations with it. Fortunately, when it comes to committing America's ground forces, there have been observable patterns and useful landmarks on the 'road-to-war' in Panama (1989), the Gulf War (1991), Haiti (1994), and Bosnia (1995). Patterns and landmarks enable planners to interpret what the President wants the military to do and when by providing termination criteria and timeline guidance. The crisis-response pattern of crisis, political response, military planning response, and catalyst, depicts US prerequisites for war. Landmarks like United Nations resolutions, presidential elections, treaties and national agreements, rise above the noise of the hyper-information environment and clarify real policy. Speeches from NCA figures are not reliable landmarks. Politically astute officers, in cooperation with interagency partners and legal counsel, are best suited to identify patterns and landmarks that clarify national intent.
Document Details
- Document Type
- Technical Report
- Publication Date
- May 24, 2018
- Accession Number
- AD1087240
Entities
People
- Mark D. Gillman