Strategic Multi-layer Assessment White Paper: The Science of Decision Making across the Span of Human Activity
Abstract
The Science of Decision Making across the Span of Human Activity is a primer on decision making by individuals, groups, and organizations drawn from cutting edge scientific research in neuroscience, psychology and social psychology, organizational psychology, political psychology, political science, and behavioral economics. It is intended primarily for operators and planners within US security agencies but should be of interest to those more generally interested in understanding the processes by which human decisions are made. This SMA White Paper takes the premise that a comprehensive and nuanced understanding of decision making by individuals, social groups and organizations is essential for good decision making. It attempts to make comprehensible what at first glance may appear to be "incomprehensible" decisions by individuals and groups challenging US security interests. It makes the point that seemingly incomprehensible decision making actually arises from predictable responses to neural, psychological, stress-related and other factors at the individual level; and to interpersonal psychology and group dynamics, as well as power-relations and other conditions at the group, organizational and state levels. In short, this paper argues we have the need--and the scientific bases--to think about decision making in ways that move beyond a strict dichotomy between seemingly "rational" versus "irrational" decisions. A more nuanced understanding of decision making and decision behavior is all the more important given the rapid and continual pace of change in global politics in the past decades. New geopolitical realities have emerged. These appear to make wars involving physical confrontation between national military forces far less likely. What we witness today are new categories of conflict that cannot be considered wars in the classical sense although neither can they be described as "peace".
Document Details
- Document Type
- Technical Report
- Publication Date
- May 15, 2015
- Accession Number
- AD1091588
Entities
People
- Allison Astorino-courtois
- Bonny Lin
- Clark Mccauley
- Cortez Cooper
- Douglas C. Derrick
- Edward Robbins
- Gina Ligon
- Hunter Hustus
- Nicholas D. Wright
- Peter Suedfeld
- Tim Fay
- Timothy Heath
Organizations
- Joint Chiefs of Staff