Regime Collapse in Syria: Expectations and Implications

Abstract

At present, collapse of the Assad regime in Syria is generally considered to be a remote possibility for three reasons: the Syrian governments consolidation of power, a fragmented opposition, and the resolve of international actors who are strongly committed to the survival of the regime. The 2019 Worldwide Threat Assessment authored by the Office of the Director of National Intelligence noted that the Assad regime held momentum and was supported by Iran and Russia as it continued consolidating territorial gains (Coats, 2019). Furthermore, an October 2019 study estimated that the Assad regime holds control over 60 percent of Syria, though its control outside Damascus is tenuous (Syria Study Group, 2019). Since that time, the regime has embarked on a campaign against rebel forces in Idlib, which only recently ended in a ceasefire (Al Jazeera, 2020).

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Document Details

Document Type
Technical Report
Publication Date
Feb 01, 2020
Accession Number
AD1092493

Entities

People

  • Alex Goncharova
  • Ali Jafri

Tags

Communities of Interest

  • Biomedical
  • C4I
  • Energy and Power Technologies
  • Weapons Technologies

DTIC Thesaurus Topics

  • Agreements
  • Civil War
  • Economic Systems
  • Governments
  • Human Rights
  • Intelligence Community (United States)
  • Law
  • Middle East
  • Military Operations
  • National Security
  • Russia
  • Security
  • Terrorism
  • Terrorists
  • United States
  • United States Central Command
  • United States Government

Readers

  • Nuclear Non-Proliferation and International Security
  • Political Violence and Terrorism Studies.