Functional Mapping Approach to Incorporate Epistemic Uncertainty in System Reliability Assessment

Abstract

A functional mapping approach was developed to include both aleatory and epistemic uncertainty sources in reliability and uncertainty sensitivity analyses with multi-disciplinary time-dependent simulations. Adaptive surrogate modeling techniques were developed for problems with spatial and temporal variability, coupled multi-disciplinary models, and reliability analysis with multiple limit states. The prediction of model error in untested configurations was achieved by focusing on model form error in the governing equation instead of discrepancy in the model output. The methods were illustrated for a hypersonic vehicle panel under aero-thermo-mechanical loading, using four coupled disciplinary models.

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Document Details

Document Type
Technical Report
Publication Date
Feb 27, 2019
Accession Number
AD1096927

Entities

People

  • Sankaran Mahadevan

Organizations

  • Vanderbilt University

Tags

Communities of Interest

  • Engineered Resilient Systems

DTIC Thesaurus Topics

  • Aircrafts
  • Bayesian Networks
  • Computational Science
  • Differential Equations
  • Equations
  • Failure Mode And Effect Analysis
  • Hypersonic Aircraft
  • Hypersonic Vehicles
  • Monte Carlo Method
  • Partial Differential Equations
  • Probability
  • Probability Distributions
  • Random Variables
  • Reliability
  • Simulations
  • Stochastic Processes
  • Vehicles

Readers

  • Adaptive Control and Estimation with Uncertainty in Dynamic Systems.
  • Software Engineering
  • Systems Analysis and Design

Technology Areas

  • Hypersonics