Predicting 36 Month Attrition in the U.S. Military
Abstract
Attrition during the first term of service imposes large costs on all military service branches. Past research has shown that attrition is strongly associated with several characteristics of recruits that are observable at the time of recruitment, or at least by the time of accession. Comparison across studies is difficult because different studies focus on different services, use different sets of variables, or use samples from different time periods. This study provides a comparative analysis of the predictors of attrition, using administrative data for all accessions across four service branches in fiscal years 2002 through 2013.The analysis shows who accesses, who attrites, when they attrite, and what observable characteristics are associated with attrition at various points during the first 36 months of service. The analysis also documents the predictive power of the data to distinguish attriters from nonattriters to assess the value of recruitment and accession data in developing policies to mitigate attrition. To highlight promising avenues for future research, the author hypothesizes potential mechanisms behind attrition based on observed similarities and differences across services and over the course of the first term.
Document Details
- Document Type
- Technical Report
- Publication Date
- Jan 01, 2020
- Accession Number
- AD1097297
Entities
People
- James V. Marrone
Organizations
- RAND Corporation