How Might Great Power Competition and Regional Dynamics Change Following the Targeted Killing of Qassam Soleimani?
Abstract
Analysis of the collected data yielded a variety of expected developments, like Chinese economic expansion into the AOR and continued Iranian support for proxies in Iraq, Lebanon and Yemen. However, the simulations also revealed several developments that were less expected or displayed one or more novel characteristics. Among the more notable of these were: The PRC seeking to forward base Chinese naval and maritime patrol assets in the AOR (e.g., in Djibouti and Gwadar) and in several cases securing the right to build bases in the AOR. Russia acting to forcibly dissolve Iran's militias in Syria, in coordination with the Assad regime. Iran conducting a false flag attempted attack against its own pipelines carrying oil to China and accusing the U.S. of trying to cut it off, in order to secure international sympathy and encourage the PRC to buy more Iranian oil and equip Iran with a modern fighter force. KSA working to develop its own version of the IRGC Quds Force, which would support the training of both sympathetic government and non-government actors in the region to curb Iranian influence. KSA establishing an alliance with the PRC and allowing China to purchase a lease for naval facilities on Saudi soil (ostensibly to aid in its deradicalization efforts). The EU creating and maintaining its own Freedom of Navigation mission in the Persian Gulf (with France and Germany in the lead). The United States stationing advanced tactical fighters and associated military personnel at bases in the north and south of Israel as part of a new strategic aerial effort in the region. The United States, using a cyberattack, causing an Iranian military plane to crash into the Fordow enrichment facility and planting doctored footage to make it seem that the Iranians shot it down via an anti-aircraft missile after mistaking it for an enemy plane.
Document Details
- Document Type
- Technical Report
- Publication Date
- Feb 28, 2020
- Accession Number
- AD1097399
Entities
People
- Anna Wetzel
- Douglas Clifford
- Gary Ackerman
- Hayley Peterson
- Jenna Latourette
- Victor Asal
Organizations
- State University of New York at Albany